Irish Economy 2021 thread

[Colm]

Sure we may as well have a thread for the 2021 Irish economy as we are nearly there

No doubt we will see some eye watering numbers and some savage cuts and Job losses,businesses go to the wall and share prices collapse.

And may as well have a thread to document it all as it takes place.

 

[Colm]

to start

What was the cost of Level 5 on our economy and health?

As the country moves out of Level 5 restrictions today, Health Correspondent Fergal Bowers looks at the impact on health services, while Economics Correspondent Robert Shortt examines the financial fallout.

www.rte.ie

The cost of putting the country under Level 5 Covid restrictions six weeks ago was estimated at the outset by the Department of Finance to be approximately €1.25bn.

This was in addition to a projected budget deficit this year of €21.5bn, announced on Budget day back at the start of October.

Estimates have varied since but the latest guess is the cost of Level 5 could have been upwards of €1.6bn.

Not cheap at all ,so basically a 25bn deficit as we enter 2021

 

[Colm]

Paschal Donohoe in with the banks today

Regarding Job Cuts and the Ulster Bank closure

There isn't a chance of Banks providing the same customer service to joe public after seeing the cost savings during the pandemic

Banking union to press Donohoe today on job cuts and strategy

The Financial Services Union, which represents thousands of workers in Ireland’s banking sector, will today press Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe to establish a national forum to tackle issues including cultural and behavioural change in institutions.

www.independent.ie

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Is there going to be an economy in 2020? Lots of people are determined that there won't be

 

[Colm]

Is there going to be an economy in 2021? Lots of people are determined that there won't be

There will always be an economy but how savage will the cuts and job losses be is the thing,the wealth hasn't vanished it merely transfers to someone else's pocket.

Will the recession be worse than the last time is what i'm wondering

With Covid & Brexit it could be

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

I still want the hardest possible brexit and I live half a mile from the border

 

[Colm]

I still want the hardest possible brexit and I live half a mile from the border

Yeah do You think your area will benefit from it ?

It may well do I would imagine

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Yeah do You think your area will benefit from it ?

It may well do I would imagine

If everyone is all happy clappy in this together you get nothing......if everyone is bitter and fighting you actually stand a chance of getting something
We lived through over 30 years of checkpoints and blown up roads around here and do not fear it's return........it seems to be some guy down the country who fears he is going to be down money and this is the major concern

 

[Techno Viking]

Is there going to be an economy in 2020? Lots of people are determined that there won't be

I would hope more for a new election. If the vaccine is unsuccesful who knows where society will end up.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

I would hope more for a new election. If the vaccine is unsuccesful who knows where society will end up.

Me too but Sinn fein love the pandemic and are very much a centre party now attracting flaky support .....chances are a Sinn fein led government would be no different to what's there now with maybe minor improvement in social provision

This is without a shadow of a doubt the worst government Ireland ever had

 

[Thus]

to start

What was the cost of Level 5 on our economy and health?

As the country moves out of Level 5 restrictions today, Health Correspondent Fergal Bowers looks at the impact on health services, while Economics Correspondent Robert Shortt examines the financial fallout.

www.rte.ie

The cost of putting the country under Level 5 Covid restrictions six weeks ago was estimated at the outset by the Department of Finance to be approximately €1.25bn.

This was in addition to a projected budget deficit this year of €21.5bn, announced on Budget day back at the start of October.

Estimates have varied since but the latest guess is the cost of Level 5 could have been upwards of €1.6bn.

Not cheap at all ,so basically a 25bn deficit as we enter 2021

Back in March we were estimating a 3bil budget surplus, some turnaround in the countries fortunes.

 

[Thus]

 

[Colm]

Economic forecast for Ireland​

The Commission publishes a full set of macroeconomic forecasts for the EU and its Member States in spring (May) and autumn (November) and publishes interim forecasts updating GDP and inflation figures in winter (February) and summer (July). These forecasts are produced by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).

Indicators	2019	2020	2021	2022
GDP growth (%, yoy)	5,6	-2,3	2,9	2,6
Inflation (%, yoy)	0,9	-0,5	0,3	1,6
Unemployment (%)	5,0	5,3	8,9	8,7
Public budget balance (% of GDP)	0,5	-6,8	-5,8	-2,5
Gross public debt (% of GDP)	57,4	63,1	66,0	66,0
Current account balance (% of GDP)	-11,3	5,7	0,2	-1,1

https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/forecasts/2020/autumn/ecfin_forecast_autumn_2020_ie_en.pdf

Autumn 2020 Economic Forecast

Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures...

ec.europa.eu

 

[Colm]

Dáil committee to hear economy faces 'scarring effects' from Covid-19

Covid-19's stark impact on the economy laid bare

www.irishexaminer.com

Ifac will say Budget 2021 included substantial, permanent increases in spending of at least €5.4 billion. Rather than being temporary and targeted, these will remain after the pandemic, it will say.

“They are also surprisingly large in the context of past budgets — budgets since 2015 have had packages closer to €3½ billion on average. The permanent increases could even be as high as €8.5bn as it is not possible to ascertain the nature of some of the increases in non-Exchequer areas. This reflects ongoing transparency problems in areas outside of the Exchequer that are traditionally not the focus of the Department,” Ifac will say.

The Council will say it is not opposed to a permanent rise in spending in and of itself. The issue is that there is no sense of how the lasting increases will be financed sustainably over the medium term.

The Programme for Government rules out tax increases and spending reductions across large parts of the tax base and existing spending. “The risk is that, instead, these will lead to larger deficits, which will put upward pressure on debt ratios. In addition, there is a risk is that some of the estimated temporary spending increases included in 2021 projections end up becoming permanent,”

• Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2020 (full report)

Fiscal Assessment Report, December 2020 | Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

www.fiscalcouncil.ie

 

[DS86DS]

House prices are on the rise again, how wonderful. Those jerry-built homes with cardboard walls and built in unsuitable locations such as flood plains by gombeen builders will now put us all a few thousand euros extra out of pocket.

House prices rise by almost 1.5% over three months

A record number of mortgage approvals and a lack of supply have driven the increases, according to a new report.

www.thejournal.ie

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

Monaghan town has exploded with new housing projects in the last 4 months....there is a crane operating again in monaghan town for the first time in over a decade

 

[valamhic]

to start

What was the cost of Level 5 on our economy and health?

As the country moves out of Level 5 restrictions today, Health Correspondent Fergal Bowers looks at the impact on health services, while Economics Correspondent Robert Shortt examines the financial fallout.

www.rte.ie

The cost of putting the country under Level 5 Covid restrictions six weeks ago was estimated at the outset by the Department of Finance to be approximately €1.25bn.

This was in addition to a projected budget deficit this year of €21.5bn, announced on Budget day back at the start of October.

Estimates have varied since but the latest guess is the cost of Level 5 could have been upwards of €1.6bn.

Not cheap at all ,so basically a 25bn deficit as we enter 2021

It's a complete mystery, we know they are printing loads of money, but even so, how can this be sustained. 20 bn borrowed in 2020 and the same
again in 2021.

 

[Thus]

It's a complete mystery, we know they are printing loads of money, but even so, how can this be sustained. 20 bn borrowed in 2020 and the same
again in 2021.

Cutting back on some farmers benefits for a start would be good. Ye fuckers have been milking the country blind for years.

 

[Mowl]

It's a complete mystery, we know they are printing loads of money, but even so, how can this be sustained. 20 bn borrowed in 2020 and the same
again in 2021.

 

[Coal Gas and peat]

The Irish economy will come to a sudden stop around mid February